A fall nor’easter is expected to blast parts of Long Island and Jersey shores with up to 50 mph winds and soaking rain this weekend, though how close it gets to us and how long it lingers are still up in the air.
The models agree a nor’easter will track along the East Coast this weekend, but they don’t agree on how far offshore the storm will be. That, along with the strength of the low, influences how much wind and rain we see Friday through Sunday.
There are still several days to go before the would-be storm directly impacts the coast. The low-pressure system hasn’t even developed in the Atlantic yet.
As of Wednesday morning, the forecast calls for shower chances to increase Friday and especially Saturday into Sunday, with gusty winds becoming more of a concern near the coast.
Long-range forecasts diverge
Swells up to 10 feet
Wind concerns
Persistent Northeast winds, combined with the approaching low, will produce rough surf, dangerous rip currents, and the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion. We anticipate multiple rounds of tidal flooding, with moderate flooding possible in some back-bay locations.
There are still several days to go before the would-be storm directly impacts the coast. The low-pressure system hasn’t even developed in the Atlantic yet.
Long-range forecast models disagree on the exact track and strength of the low, which again, directly affect the severity of the impacts locally.
The European forecast model develops a stronger low that passes very close to the East Coast, delivering stronger winds and heavier rain. The American forecast model, on the other hand, keeps the low weaker and far offshore, resulting in lighter wind and rain.
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